Germany is decommissioning its closed nuclear plants, but opportunities for restarting remain. New energy demand and news of Three Mile Island's revival have improved the outlook for closed plants. No significant technical barriers prevent Germany’s nuclear restart, but swift action is needed.
Executive Summary
Germany shut down its last nuclear plants on April 15, 2023, and is making significant progress in decommissioning 31 reactors. After years of producing enough electricity for its own needs and exporting the surplus, Germany imported 9 TWh net in 2023 and as of November 25, 2024, increased imports to 25 TWh net. The German economy is expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2024, following a 0.3% decline in 2023. A 2024 survey by Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce shows a rising number of businesses are considering reducing production or relocating out of Germany.
A German nuclear restart depends solely on political will. The two most urgent measures include an immediate moratorium on the dismantling of reactors and an amendment to the Atomic Energy Act to allow nuclear power plants to be operated again.
Reversing Germany’s nuclear shutdown remains popular, economical, and feasible. No major technical barriers prevent Germany’s recently closed reactors from coming back online. New energy demand and Three Mile Island's planned restart have created new opportunities for recommissioning retired nuclear plants, making even those undergoing extensive decommissioning economically viable for a restart. Legal hurdles exist but can be addressed.
Two-thirds of Germans support the continued use of nuclear energy. Radiant Energy Group's Public Attitudes toward Clean Energy (PACE) report found that 67% of Germans support nuclear's use for electricity generation in the country. 42% of respondents support building new plants, while only 23% support phasing out and banning nuclear energy altogether.
Electricity production from retired German reactors could have a market value of 100 billion euros over 20 years. With the growth of AI and high-performance computing, hyperscalers need large amounts of constant energy to power massive data centers for cloud computing, storage, and processing. Recently, Microsoft signed a deal to pay between 110–115 USD/MWh for clean nuclear energy from Constellation Energy by restarting Three Mile Island Unit 1. If German reactors were restarted and granted the same 20-year life extension as Three Mile Island, at 100 EUR/MWh, they could generate over 100 billion euros in taxable profit from rapidly growing industries eager to meet their energy demands swiftly.
By 2028, three reactors could be restarted, adding 4 GW of capacity. If decommissioning stops now and rehiring begins, Brokdorf could resume operation as early as the end of 2025. With swift legislative action and proper planning, Emsland and Grohnde can be operational by the end of 2028. Six additional reactors could all be restarted by the end of 2032.
Other benefits of restarting German nuclear plants. With nuclear plants back in operation, electricity-related CO2 emissions would decrease in Germany and neighboring countries. Approximately 5,000 high-paying jobs would be preserved in the rural communities hosting the nuclear plants. Additionally, Germany’s once cutting-edge nuclear technology industry could be revitalized as more countries begin or expand their nuclear programs.
Introduction
Germany once operated one of the world's largest nuclear power fleets and was a leading provider of nuclear technology. However, public opposition halted nuclear expansion by 1990, leading to a phase-out agreement in 2002. Despite a brief runtime extension under Chancellor Merkel in 2009, the Fukushima disaster in 2011 prompted her to make a rapid reversal of her previous policy, with Germany committing to shut down all nuclear plants by the end of 2022.
To replace nuclear power, Germany planned to rely on a mix of coal, wind, solar, and Russian natural gas from pipelines. The country aimed to gradually phase out coal while increasing renewables and using natural gas as a bridge fuel. However, this strategy faced a significant setback when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, disrupting Germany's plans for cheap Russian gas imports. This crisis sparked public debates about extending nuclear plant operations. Nevertheless, Germany's last nuclear reactors ceased electricity production on April 15, 2023.
The shutdown of Germany’s nuclear plants has had major impacts. Before the final nuclear closures, Germany had been a net exporter of electricity. Now, Germany is a net importer, relying on its neighbors for power. Imports in 2024 have nearly tripled those of 2023 before the start of December. Ironically, about half of this imported energy came from France, Switzerland, and Belgium, where nuclear power provides a substantial portion of the electricity supply.
Germany’s GDP is expected to decline for the second consecutive year. This slowdown is not surprising, given the drop in primary energy consumption. After a 5.4% drop in energy consumption in 2022, reaching the lowest level since reunification, consumption further declined by nearly 8% in 2023. Since its peak in 2019, clean electricity production has declined 12% despite adding 60% more wind and solar capacity since 2019. In contrast, the USA has been growing its clean electricity generation alongside a growing economy.
The decline in Germany’s economy could worsen with further deindustrialization. A 2024 survey by Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer (DIHK), the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, of nearly 3,300 companies found that 37% are considering reducing production or relocating out of Germany, up from 31% last year and 16% in 2022. The figure is even higher among energy-intensive firms, with 45% contemplating output cuts or moving operations.
While Germany continues decommissioning its nuclear plants, global interest in nuclear energy is rising sharply, especially in other countries that, similarly, had recently closed nuclear reactors for political reasons. In Sweden, the government has initiated talks to extend the lifespan of existing nuclear reactors and aims to add capacity equivalent to up to ten large-scale reactors by 2045. The Netherlands has announced support for building at least four new reactors, increasing its nuclear project funding from 4.5 billion euros to 14 billion euros. Japan is accelerating reactor restarts and has extended reactor lifespans from 40 to 60 years. South Korea, once committed to phasing out nuclear power, has reversed its policy, and has announced plans to increase its reliance on nuclear energy.
This shift aligns with the growing demand from AI, electrified transportation, and other energy-intensive industries for clean baseload power. Nucor, a major U.S. steel producer, signed a power purchase agreement with a nuclear reactor vendor to help decarbonize its manufacturing processes. Meanwhile, Thyssenkrupp plans to cut a total of 11,000 jobs in its steel division by the end of 2030. Google recently announced an agreement to buy electricity from reactors being developed by Kairos Power. Just two days later, Amazon made its first direct investment in nuclear energy, partnering with X-Energy and Energy Northwest to build a fleet of reactors to power its data centers, targeting 5 GW by 2040. Germany’s electricity mix is highly variable and remains high in emissions, contrasting the low-emission baseload power newly demanded by industry and hyperscalers.
The growing demand for clean energy has created new opportunities for both active and previously retired nuclear plants. In a landmark announcement on September 20th, U.S. energy company Constellation Energy revealed plans to refurbish Three Mile Island Unit 1, five years after its 2019 retirement. This decision was driven by a new agreement with Microsoft, which is estimated to be paying between 110 and 115 USD/MWh for the reactor’s electricity. The 20-year contract, providing 835 MW of capacity, has an estimated value of 16 billion dollars.
New nuclear power plants are still costly to build and can take years to complete. Therefore, any alternative that is less expensive than new builds, yet brings nuclear power online, will be economically competitive. These solutions are especially valuable for data centers and technology operations that need reliable, around-the-clock power as soon as possible.
However, it’s not only new nuclear plants that present challenges in construction. One of the key difficulties in bringing all types of new electricity generation capacity online is building new transmission. Former nuclear sites, even those that have undergone substantial decommissioning, already have the infrastructure required to connect to the grid, providing a critical advantage. This existing infrastructure can facilitate a quicker and more efficient transition back to operational status, helping to meet the rising demand for reliable, low-carbon energy. Of the types of clean energy, only nuclear can deliver a substantial amount of electricity while utilizing this existing transmission infrastructure and fitting within the footprints of existing sites.
In this report, Germany's reactors and former nuclear sites have been reassessed, taking into account rising energy demand and nuclear restarts abroad. This report also identifies the challenges to restarting these reactors and the necessary steps to address them.
The two most urgent actions include halting decommissioning activities for recently closed reactors and amending the Atomic Energy Act to legalize power operation again.
Restart Feasibility and Schedule
Status of Germany’s nuclear reactors
Germany is currently decommissioning 31 nuclear reactors. Most recently, six German reactors collectively nicknamed “The German Six” or “GER6” by restart advocates were shut down between 2021 and 2023.
Public information about the status of decommissioning and specific reactor details is limited. Nuclear industry managers worry that decommissioning contracts could be jeopardized if reactors are considered for refurbishment. Additionally, much of the challenge in obtaining assessments stems from a prevailing internal culture of compliance with the recently collapsed “Ampel” coalition government. This has discouraged open discussion. As a result, industry experts contributed information for this report under the condition of anonymity.
In addition to these confidential expert statements, information on the technical condition of plants under decommissioning was collected from publicly available sources with the aim of classifying the decommissioned German nuclear power plants into four categories based on the estimated time and cost to restart.
Restart Class 1: The power plant has been shut down, but significant decommissioning work has not taken place. The plant requires maintenance, minor repairs or replacements, rehiring of staff, and nuclear fuel purchases.
Restart Class 2: Significant decommissioning work has begun, and parts of the turbine island and nuclear steam supply system have been dismantled. A significant number of major components, such as the reactor pressure vessel, steam generators, and fuel handling systems, remain intact and could be reused if the missing parts are replaced.
Restart Class 3: Most major components of the nuclear steam supply system, turbine, and generator have either been removed or are beyond repair. Restarting the plant would necessitate the installation of an entirely new nuclear steam supply system or at least various new, major nuclear steam supply system components. The integrity of the containment building remains intact or is within feasible repair.
Restart Class 4: The containment building is either irreparably damaged or has been partially or completely demolished. The site still has infrastructure that would support the construction of a new reactor.
Some former nuclear sites have already been restored to greenfield status and are therefore outside the scope of this report.
Brokdorf could potentially be brought back online by late 2025 at a cost significantly below 1 billion euros. Emsland and Grohnde, given the limited progress in their decommissioning, could be restarted as early as 2028. Restart Class 2 reactors are estimated to require between 1 billion euros and 3 billion euros each and could all be restarted by 2032 – and some, like Grohnde, much sooner. For Restart Class 3 reactors, cost and time savings relative to new builds could be achieved by salvaging existing components and infrastructure.
Detailed assessments will be required to determine which structures and components in German reactors can be repaired or refurbished and which must be replaced. This report provides a preliminary assessment of the critical infrastructure elements at each reactor, presented in a simplified manner to protect our sources within the industry. The elements we assessed include:
Road connection: Does the plant have an accessible and functional road network?
Rail/Port connection: Is the plant connected to a railway system and/or infrastructure for transport of large components by ship?
Water connection: Is the original water source for the plant still available and usable?
Grid transmission: Does the site still have functional transmission infrastructure to connect to the grid?
Tower/River cooling: Are the cooling towers intact or capable of being repaired for reuse, if applicable?
Turbine and generator: Are the turbine and generator still present and in working or repairable condition?
Coolant systems: Is the main coolant system intact or free of major damage?
Reactor system: Are the reactor pressure vessel and reactor internals intact?
Containment building: Is the containment building structurally sound and does it meet regulations?
The cost of decommissioning
The phase-out of nuclear power in Germany comes at a high economic cost, including a decline in electricity tax revenue, reduced industrial activity, and the loss of emissions-free dispatchable power from the grid.
Beyond these impacts, the process of prematurely shutting down and decommissioning nuclear plants carries its own significant expenses. A study by Siempelkamp NIS Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH, a German engineering firm specializing in decommissioning, indicates that decommissioning costs for pressurized water reactors (PWRs) in six European countries, including Germany, range from 320 million euros to 1.5 billion euros per unit. The estimated decommissioning costs for Germany’s Grohnde and Isar 1 and 2 reactors are approximately 1 billion euros each.
Germany has managed decommissioning activities with a high level of efficiency, making significant headway in dismantling plants over the last year. However, the full dismantling of all reactors is not expected to be completed until the 2040s. German energy companies have allocated approximately 38 billion euros for the decommissioning of nuclear power plants and managing nuclear waste.
In the coming decades, tens of billions of euros will be spent on nuclear in Germany through decommissioning and waste management. However, under current energy policy, Germans will miss out on the much larger benefits that operational reactors could offer over mere decommissioning activity.
Financial cost and benefit considerations
Since the final reactor shutdown in 2023, decommissioning has advanced and significant damage has been done to many reactors. However, rising energy demand creates new financial opportunities and incentives for restarts. Demand from AI companies and hyperscalers has surged, demonstrating the current and growing market for baseload power. The AI sector's power demand is expected to double between 2022 and 2026, driven by the growth of data centers and advancements in machine-learning capabilities.
Microsoft’s demand for its data centers enabled the announced refurbishment of Three Mile Island in September after a five-year retirement. Microsoft signed a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for between 110–115 USD/MWh, an unprecedented combination of high price, large volume, and long duration. This 20-year agreement is valued at approximately 16 billion dollars, showing the significant revenue potential of nuclear energy in high-demand sectors.
Restart costs for Germany’s reactors are estimated through comparison with known costs and timelines of similar repairs and construction projects in Europe and North America. Bringing a Restart Class 1 reactor back online could cost up to 1 billion euros, but likely significantly less. Restart Class 2 reactors may require investments of up to 3 billion euros. Historically, Germany’s marginal cost of nuclear operation ranged between 16.9 and 17.9 EUR/MWh. With inflation and increased costs for fuel and services, experts now estimate that ongoing operating costs will range from 22–30 EUR/MWh after one-time restart investments.
Given these costs and the prices large companies are willing to pay for long-term energy contracts, there is a strong financial case for restarting Germany’s reactors as soon as possible. At a power purchase agreement price of 100 EUR/MWh, similar to the Three Mile Island deal, the nine reactors in Restart Class 1 and Restart Class 2 in Germany could collectively generate around 10 billion euros in annual revenue. Over 20 years, considering a restart investment of 20 billion euros for all nine reactors and a conservative 30 EUR/MWh for operating cost, this would generate over 100 billion euros of profit.
Even at a price of 60 EUR/MWh, which supports industrial consumers' competitiveness abroad, Restart Class 1 and 2 reactor restarts provide a strong economic case. At 100 EUR/MWh, all restarts on current and former nuclear sites become economically viable, even if they require building an entirely new reactor on an existing site. These restarts are not only financially appealing but also technically feasible. This places political decisions as the main barrier, highlighting the need for clear and supportive policies to unlock the potential of Germany’s existing nuclear assets.
The oldest German reactors included in the Restart Classes 1-3 have had 37 years in operation. In comparison, nuclear plants in the United States are being granted license extensions, enabling them to operate for up to 80 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is already considering the possibility of extending licenses beyond that timeframe. If restarted, German reactors would be operable for at least as long as their American peers, suggesting lifespans beyond 2080 for all reactors in Restart Classes 1-3.
Operating licenses
All German reactors undergoing decommissioning still hold their original operating licenses. Although federal laws make commercial production of nuclear electricity illegal, their licenses remain valid. Decommissioning activities are managed under amendments to the existing operating licenses.
Questions remain, however, about if and how these licenses would need to be amended or reissued for renewed operation. Since the last reactors were commissioned in 1989, nuclear licensing requirements have changed, with new international standards in place. For instance, standards establish requirements to mitigate risks associated with aircraft accidents (FLAB).
One special feature is the requirement for environmental impact assessments (EIA). Depending on the scope of the repair measures, the requirements for an EIA may be met. Here, too, it will depend on the political will. Just as in Germany some solar and wind farms don’t need to meet EIA criteria, the same can be made true for nuclear.
The main questions surrounding licensing involve the legal and regulatory processes needed for plant repair and restart. These challenges are primarily procedural rather than technical. There are no technical barriers preventing these plants from being repaired and brought up to current regulatory standards for operation.
The U.S. is setting a precedent for this type of undertaking. The NRC has begun evaluating Constellation Energy’s proposal to restore Three Mile Island Unit 1’s operating license and extend its operational life. This comprehensive review includes assessments of safety, environmental impact, and emergency preparedness. The NRC's evaluation is expected to be completed by 2027 with a positive result. The plant's restart is planned for 2028.
Workforce rehiring
Rehiring and training a skilled workforce is the second-largest challenge to restarting Germany’s reactors, following political barriers.
Germany's nuclear industry, before the phase-out, maintained an impressive record in plant operations. In their last years of operation, German reactors achieved over 90% availability with a workforce of 300 to 400 employees per reactor, completing annual refueling and maintenance within three weeks. In comparison, U.S. reactors, recognized for their operational excellence, also achieve over 90% availability but typically require nearly 1,000 workers and take just as long to complete refueling and maintenance outages every 18 months.
As part of the nuclear phase-out, Germany’s nuclear workforce has declined over time. Staffing levels at plants were reduced as retiring employees were not replaced, and this reduction has continued post-shutdown. However, unlike in the U.S. where nuclear plant closures led to large layoffs, German plants retained most of their workforce after the shutdowns. Each site with spent fuel already requires a substantial number of licensed staff on-site for safety and maintenance. Also, many of the personnel who once operated these plants are now working on their decommissioning. Isar 2 now operates with nearly 300 employees, down from its previous 400. Gundremmingen has 500 employees compared to the 800 it once required for two reactors in operation. Grohnde has around 200 employees, down from its original 400.
To restart German nuclear reactors, full staffing must be restored. This will require rehiring former staff, hiring new staff, and retraining existing staff to transition from decommissioning to recommissioning and operational tasks. Additional technicians and craftsmen will be needed for repairs and restoration.
If Germany’s incoming government desires to quickly recommission several reactors, staff can be made available by halting decommissioning activities and temporarily reassigning them to other reactors based on timeline constraints and priority. The similarity between reactor types of most Restart Class 1 and Restart Class 2 plants (“Baulinie3” and “Baulinie80”) means this transfer can be managed with reasonable retraining.
Whether the remaining staff are kept at their home plant or reassigned, increasing the nuclear workforce is essential but challenging due to Germany's skilled labor shortage. Fortunately, Germany has a strong tradition of skilled technical training and offers attractive career opportunities in technical fields. Nuclear industry jobs are high-paying, stable, and locally based, making them appealing within the German job market. The stigma once associated with nuclear work has diminished as public support for nuclear power has grown.
Utility managers estimate that training new engineers and technicians for key plant roles would take about three years.
Fuel supply
Nuclear fuel supply has been cited as a limitation on restarting German nuclear plants. This is not the case given the timelines of Restart Class 2 reactors. Fuel fabricators typically require up to an 18-month turnaround for new fuel elements from the time of the order. In 2022, Westinghouse offered to supply fuel to German reactors within six months and has recently reaffirmed its ability to deliver fuel to German plants within a few months. Fuel can be ordered alongside repairs or equipment replacements. Even following the standard fuel ordering timeline, fuel availability will not limit reactor readiness for operation. Restart Class 1 plant Brokdorf still retains fuel for about one year of full-power operation, so this remains true even if the plant is restarted in less than 18 months.
There is concern that nuclear fuel for German reactors requires purchasing enriched uranium from Russia. After years of dependency on Russian facilities to produce enriched uranium, Europe is rapidly expanding its domestic uranium processing, enrichment, and fuel fabrication capabilities. With current capabilities and planned expansions, Western allies are well-prepared to meet Germany’s reactor fuel needs, even with an aggressive restart plan. Notably, the fuel elements themselves for the West German reactors were produced by ANF in Lingen, Germany. No West German fuel and no German fuel after 1991 has ever been produced in Russia.
Germany has its own uranium enrichment capabilities that continue to operate despite the nuclear phase-out. Urenco’s uranium enrichment facility in Gronau, Germany, accounts for 14% of all Western enrichment capacity and has the potential for significant expansion under its current license. German company ETC, based in Jülich, produces nearly all the centrifuges used in Western enrichment plants. If absolute energy independence becomes a national priority, domestic uranium mineral deposits could be exploited.
Repairs and the nuclear supply chain
Germany’s domestic nuclear supply chain has seen significant reductions, but it has not disappeared entirely. Parts of the original supply chain for Germany’s reactors still operate within the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) supply chain, keeping core knowledge and manufacturing capabilities active. German companies continue to produce critical components for nuclear plants around the world. For example, German engineering firms are manufacturing pumps and control units that are being installed in new nuclear construction in China. Siemens’s Teleperm XS, a digital control system offered by Framatome for both new builds and retrofit, is being installed in nuclear reactors worldwide.
Replacement components for reactors can be manufactured outside of Germany if they are not available within Germany.
New parts are being purchased and fabricated to refurbish Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which is older than all of Germany's Restart Class 1 and Restart Class 2 reactors, and has been shut down for longer than all but one of them. There is no technical reason this cannot be done for German reactors, especially since these parts and services are readily available on the international market today.
Reestablishing and rebuilding the supply chain is possible, and Germany could even consider reshoring parts of it if desired. Technical capabilities exist and are available on national and international markets for when the order to restart is given.
Waste
Restarting Germany's reactors would have a minimal impact on the overall volume of nuclear waste to be managed. Each German reactor generates about 25 tonnes of spent nuclear fuel per year. If all of the Restart Class 1 and Restart Class 2 reactors were restarted, continued operation would add roughly 225 tonnes of spent fuel annually. Over a 20-year period, this would increase the current spent fuel stock from around 11,000 tonnes to approximately 15,500 tonnes.
Decommissioning the reactors does not eliminate the need to manage nuclear waste. Countries with active nuclear programs have taken the lead on waste management solutions, while Germany, without active reactors, falls behind. For example, Finland has completed its deep geological repository and is testing its operations, while Sweden has issued a final construction permit for its repository.
Potential energy remains within the spent fuel removed from reactors. This spent fuel can be recycled into Mixed Oxide fuel (MOX), which German reactors have used in the past. With the reactors back in operation, Germany could choose to reduce the amount of its existing waste by reprocessing it in France and then using it for fuel. This would greatly reduce the final volume of any waste requiring deep geological disposal.
Public opinion
Recent polls show broad support for nuclear energy among Germans. Radiant Energy Group’s Public Attitudes Towards Clean Energy (PACE) survey, conducted in 2023 by leading research firm Savanta, found that 42% of the German public generally supports nuclear energy, while 29% opposes it. This level of support is similar to that in other Western countries, such as the UK and Canada, where reactors are being granted life extensions, and new reactors are under construction.
The poll also found that some respondents who were unsure or generally opposed to nuclear power still supported its continued use in Germany. When asked if Germany should keep using nuclear energy, 67% supported its use, and 42% supported building new plants, while only 23% favored phasing out and banning nuclear energy.
Timeline and next steps
With swift action, Brokdorf could be restarted as soon as the end of next year. Two additional reactors could be brought back into operation by the end of 2028. A further six reactors could restart by the end of 2032.
To begin repair work, the German Bundestag must amend the Atomic Energy Act, which can be passed with a simple majority of MPs. The timeline for the amendment will depend on the level of political consensus within the Bundestag.
In the meantime, the German government should swiftly impose a moratorium on the decommissioning of nuclear power plants. Each reactor should be carefully assessed to determine which components can be reused, which require repairs, and which need to be replaced entirely.
Conclusion
Restarting Germany’s nuclear reactors is feasible and practical. No insurmountable obstacles have been identified. The U.S. is demonstrating that bringing retired reactors back online is not only logical but also cost-effective. Major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are willing to pay premium prices for long-term power contracts from nuclear plants because the electricity is reliable, clean, and available in the near term. The most important action is to halt decommissioning activities at Restart Class 1 and Restart Class 2 reactors while awaiting necessary amendments to the Atomic Energy Act. Industrial partners should explore power purchase agreements to motivate the restart process and limit unnecessary damage to reactors.
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